by BL Maan, Editor-in-Chief, Ujala Darpan
In world politics, there are some events that do not fade away as a mere day’s headline, but remain etched in history for decades. August 2025 may well be recorded in that very category. U.S. President Donald Trump, at the White House, managed to seat the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia at the same table, make them shake hands, and sign a document claiming to end a conflict that has bloodied the South Caucasus for almost 40 years.
For his supporters, this is a “diplomatic miracle.” For his critics, it is “political theater.” Either way, one thing is certain — this marks the beginning of a new game on the geopolitical chessboard involving the U.S., Russia, Europe, and Asia.
Conflict background
The dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia centers on the Nagorno–Karabakh region. This mountainous area was under Azerbaijan’s administrative control during the Soviet Union, but its population was predominantly Armenian.
After the Soviet collapse, a brutal war raged from 1988 to 1994, killing thousands and displacing hundreds of thousands.
In 1994, a temporary ceasefire was achieved, but it did not turn into lasting peace. Large-scale fighting broke out again in 2020 and 2023.
In 2023, Azerbaijan took full control over Karabakh. Armenia then faced a political crisis, but gradually small windows of dialogue began to open between the two countries.
Donald Trump has previously mediated deals such as the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, historic meetings with North Korea, and other economic–diplomatic arrangements. But this time the scene was unique — in the White House East Room, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sat facing each other, with Trump standing between them as cameras flashed continuously.
The agreement’s key terms include opening major transport routes, releasing prisoners, fostering economic cooperation, and creating a new U.S.-backed transit corridor named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.”
America’s ‘hidden benefit’
While the peace deal appears humanitarian and diplomatic on the surface, its geopolitical implications run deeper.
The South Caucasus is a strategic crossroads between Europe and Asia — pipelines here carry energy supplies to Europe, bypassing Russia and Iran.
With America now appearing successful in mediation, Russia’s influence in the region looks diminished. Moscow was once the main player in such talks, but its engagement in the Ukraine war has weakened its traditional hold.
‘Trump Route’ — What’s in a Name?
Perhaps the most talked-about part of the deal is the naming of the new transit corridor after Trump. Interestingly, U.S. officials claim the idea came from Armenia.
This naming gives Trump a symbolic win — positioning himself as a peace-making brand.
However, it also politicizes the agreement, with opposition parties calling it part of the U.S. president’s election campaign.
Economic and technological cooperation
Alongside the peace deal, both countries signed separate agreements with the U.S. to expand cooperation in energy, technology, and trade.
Details are not yet public, but experts believe this will open significant opportunities for U.S. companies — especially in oil–gas pipelines, mineral resources, and digital infrastructure.
In the eyes of critics
Trump’s critics view the entire event as political theater. Their arguments:
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The deal does not guarantee lasting peace.
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Trump is leveraging it for election publicity.
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Key issues like the return of displaced Armenians and protection of cultural–religious rights in Karabakh remain unclear.
Some experts also warn that success depends on how well Azerbaijan and Armenia manage internal political pressures.
Reactions from Russia and Turkey
Russia is uneasy about the deal — it strengthens U.S. intervention in its traditional sphere of influence.
Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan, has publicly welcomed the peace initiative but is cautious about America’s growing role.
Iran officially called it positive, but insiders are concerned about increased U.S. presence along its northern border.
Is this really the end of the ‘40-year-old war’?
History shows that many peace agreements look solid on paper but collapse on the ground:
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The 1994 ceasefire — broken within six years.
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The 2020 Russia-brokered deal — collapsed within three years.
The question now is — will the Trump deal follow the same path, or will it mark a new beginning?
The answer will unfold over the next five years, as both countries test progress in economic cooperation, border security, and cultural rights.
Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize dream
At the ceremony, both leaders praised Trump, with some even saying he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump, in a light-hearted tone, remarked: “They fought for 35 years, and now they’re friends… and will remain friends for a long time.”
Nobel history shows that merely brokering an agreement is not enough — its lasting success is also necessary. By that measure, Trump still has a long road ahead.
Challenges ahead
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Humanitarian issues – Will displaced people return home?
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Border demarcation – Many areas have unclear boundaries, risking local clashes.
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Domestic politics – A significant section in Armenia opposes the deal.
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Regional power plays – Russia, Turkey, and Iran may challenge the peace.
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U.S. commitment – Uncertainty remains about how long America will provide political and economic support.
The Azerbaijan–Armenia agreement offers the South Caucasus the prospect of a new era.
If it holds, it could benefit not only both nations but also Europe and Asia economically and strategically.
For Trump, it is a diplomatic achievement, but it will only earn a lasting place in history if it moves beyond “paper peace” to become “peace on the ground.”
The world’s eyes are now on Baku and Yerevan — and the White House hopes that the ‘Trump Route’ will not remain just a name, but truly become a path to peace and prosperity.
